By Sydney Britt
Last year we were gifted with a brand-new Guillermo del Toro film, Nightmare Alley, a remake of the 1947 film of the same name. The movie, a feat in visual storytelling as all del Toro movies are, was relatively well-received with 79% of Google users liking the film and an 80% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. And, in the end, the film was nominated for Best Picture at the 94th annual Academy Awards. But was there ever a chance for this neo-noir thriller? One must look back through Best Picture history to determine that.
Firstly, it is worth noting that this movie was nominated for three other Oscars, these were for Best Cinematography, Best Costumes Design, and Best Production design, so all for the aesthetics of the film. This comes as no surprise as del Toro, the director, producer, and co-writer of this movie, has become known for his striking visuals. However, this was a big year for movie visuals and the striking film ended up losing in all three of these other categories.
As for the biggest award of the night, the Best Picture Oscar, this is definitely the award that Nightmare Alley had the lowest chance of winning among all of its Academy Award nominations because as far as the movie goes, it’s good, but it’s not incredible. But the Best Picture winner is not always an incredible film, in fact there are a number of movies that have managed to beat out far more deserving films in this Oscar category, this is why creating a home Oscar ballot has become so popular, because it is never a sure-fire thing as to which film will win or not. What I want to find out is whether Nightmare Alley ever even had a chance.
Immediately we need to look at the fact that this movie is a remake of another film. And right away we can say that does not impact whether or not Nightmare Alley was likely to win Best Picture, in fact, the film that actually took home the coveted award this year, CODA, is a remake of a 2014 French film called La Famille Bélier. Next, let’s look at genre to find out how likely it was that Nightmare Alley could take home best picture. When you Google Nightmare Alley it is first and foremost described as a thriller with dramatic elements. Now, when you look at all the Best Picture winners from 1980 to 2021, forty-one films in all, about 56% of those films were primarily drama films with other genre elements. Meanwhile, only two films or 2.44% of the Best Picture winners have been primarily thrillers, this meaning when you Google the film the first genre that is listed for the film is ‘thriller.’ One of those two wins came in 1991 with The Silence of the Lambs, and the second win came in 2019 with Parasite. So there is a recent precedent for a thriller winning the award, but when looking at the overall picture, it is very uncommon.
Next, let us look at other factors that generally impact whether a film is likely to win Best Picture. First, let us look at how many of the 41 Best Pictures have been at least somewhat based on true stories. As it would turn out, 20, or 48.78% of the films have been true stories. In addition, 23, or 56% of the movies have been adaptations while 15 or 36.6% of the movies have been historical films. And lastly, 21 or 51% of the movies have been focused on a pressing social issue like gay rights or race relations. As for how Nightmare Alley measures up when looking at the statistics, del Toro’s film is an adaptation of an earlier film and it takes place in the past, but it is not based on a true story and it is not really focused on any sort of social issue. Technically mental health is involved in this movie, but it is not really the central focus of the story. So it does not look terrible for Nightmare Alley but it really does not quite match up with the majority of the past wins, especially because most of the historical films have been focused on war and this film is not.
Lastly, let’s just look at how common it is for a movie like this one to win Best Picture. What I mean by “like Nightmare Alley” is a movie with the same weird and eccentric nature. And frankly, this is what looks the worst for Nightmare Alley. Of all the wins since 1980, the only one that is really comparable is The Shape of Water, another del Toro film. Granted, it was in 2018 when this movie won, so it was not too long ago, but in the grand scheme of things it really does not look like Nightmare Alley ever had a chance of winning. It is so unlike the majority of the Best Picture winners from the past four decades, and when up against movies that focused on the lives of deaf people and on war, it was pretty clear that Nightmare Alley was never going to win.